And just like that … we’re at halftime for the year. How’s it been for you? How’s work - what’s working, what’s giving you energy. Remember all those start of year predictions? No me neither.
I’m not thinking about talking about calling it the summer lull yet but …. well, Wimbledon is on, Glasto has wrapped, the British Grand Prix is this weekend and England are winning in the cricket …
These last two weeks have been a little less eventful than many previous fortnights, I’ve promised myself I will resist the temptation to over focus on not much news at times like this and keep this markets segment short (if you’d like more general meaningless waffle do let me know I can provide that too).
Markets re-assess (yes, again!) the likely path of rates. No sign of inflation peaking yet - that’s key. These remain, and will remain the dominant market drivers for the foreseeable. Markets dislike uncertainty and there’s plenty of that around. Everyone’s trying to pick the turning point.
Just to show how hard this all is to properly predict, John Authers reminds us that rate cuts don’t tend to follow too far behind rises, so the market is wrestling with BOTH the pace of hikes, AND future cuts right now, all the more reason to not hang too much on any one view of the world.
Here’s the usual charts: global stock market ETFs (yellow line in in GBP unhedged - notably flat since March now).
Balanced portfolios have had the worst start to the year since ‘08
Bond ETFs
Now on to the really interesting stuff.
Things I’m reading
Ugly defaults in beauty
Revlon as the latest analogue company to zombify then bite the dust in a digital world (and the biggest corporate default for a while, at c$3bn) is an intriguing story in itself if it wasn’t for the wild story of how it all went full Goblin mode as the company tried to aggressively stiff a chunk of its creditors (a technical term, but apparently happens quite often) Citi paid them all off by accident (umm, yes really), the company defaulted and it’s stock suged. Confused? Matt Levine has the full story (post).
chartr daily: (post) this is how you zombify
2. We need to talk about Lunch. Yes lunch, Until recently it was against the law for you to eat lunch at your desk in France writes Anne Helen Petersen (post). And frankly, I think the French have it right here. Lunch at the desk is every bit the “sad, limp experience” she describes. Go on, get out for a few minutes …
Nails it:
Today, there are far fewer physical hazards connected to the workplace. But eating at one’s desk is still hazardous. It normalizes a form of “grazing” productivity culture in which workers program themselves to always be working in some form, but rarely actually achieving any form of concentration or deep work.
In truth, the desk-lunch is counter-productive. It makes us worse at our jobs, worse coworkers, more individualistic, and more exhausted. If we understand burnout as an occupational hazard, then it’s time to consider how we can protect ourselves against the desk lunch — both the sad, limp experience itself, but also all it represents.
3. Viking, Forth, Cromarty. Moderate or good, rising slowly, occasionally poor. Forecasts, I’ve seen a few. In markets you love em or hate em but one thing most Brits seem to agree on is a fondness for the shipping forecast, but it will soon be ending on longwave radio writes the Week (post) .
At just 350 words it weas a marvel of brevity, and had a soothing, almost poetic quality. Giving listeners simultaneously a sense of security and wonder at what surrounds our little island. It was also right about 93% of the time.
4. Resilience FTW. PIMCO are reimagining the global economy and markets around the idea of resilience (as opposed to efficiency) in their quarterly secular outlook.
2 things I’m listening to
The Long Now seminars with Dorie Clark. How to be a long term thinker in a short term world. (web | apple)
96% of leaders say they don’t have time for strategic thinking. There is a huge disconnect going on: we have to look at a long timeframe to make smarter choices, but we just never get time.
Long term thinking is test of courage to make choices , you have to decide what to leave aside and be bad at . Busyness is a socially acceptable form of status signalling (but it’s actually quite obnoxious)
What is lacking in our lives is whitespace in our day. Good quality, unallocated time to reflect and have ideas. I doesn’t take time to have new ideas, it takes SPACE.
2. Santa Fe Institute on Rethinking Economics for a Sustainabile World
Mainstream academic economists like Diane Coyle are talking clearly about the limitations of GDP and of free markets in achieving / measuring progress. Love this idea that you can’t just rely on linearly adding up the choices of individuals and assume you get to a good place, there are emergent properties of societies that can be good or bad.
Big mistake of twentieth century economics was assuming could be a fully technocratic discipline separated from values. Instituions (software / hardware) for a changing world - Institutions have lots of inertia (eg driving on left vs right )
I felt spoilt for choice on podcasts this week so here’s a couple more bonus ones:
This might just be the message you need to hear right now: you have more influence than you think says Professor Vanessa Bohn on the Rational Reminder podcast (web | apple). We don’t tend to have a good feel for what other people really notice about us.
A Sustainable Future on Short Termism. This is really good. Helped me clarify thinking on short termism vs externalities . I agree short termism a convenient scapegoat but not always the problem (web | apple)
Grab Bag
The end of Google search? Whisper it - is the singular most successful and revolutionary product of the internet age in terminal decline?
…”Like much of the internet in 2022, it feels monetized to death, soulless, and exhausting.” (post )
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So, what are we all reading this summer? From the Bond King to the Palace Papers, I’ve got some suggestions.
Quote / meme of the week from morning Brew