Uncertainty
On cynicism revisited, Warren’s blind spots, an explainer of meeting overload and the two sides of human nature.
How you doing?
Fine, other than feeling generally awful about the world. What else can one really say? if you haven’t already please consider donating to the DEC appeal to help the 1.5m+ Ukrainians now refugees. Revolut users can also donate through the app and get their donations matched .
On a lighter note I’m on holiday this week: the French mountain air is fresh, the sun is shining and the cheese is real 😁
At 9.40 this morning, possibly by the time you’ve read this I’m doing the Les Arcs high speed zip line , mainly because I accidentally bought a ski pass that included it … so we can say that sunk costs are real.
In the week of international womens day, Mary and I had a really good conversation with colleague Jess Clark on bias , allyship, using your platform and more. Listen on web | apple.
So this is a holiday edition wherein I will try and get all blue sky / high level on you and step back to the bigger picture, let’s see how this goes.
First here are your year to date numbers as of Wednesday’s close. Needless to say, the market is wrestling with a huge amount of uncertainty across rates, inflation, commodities, stocks etc. There are much bigger things than markets going on right now. These numbers will probably be out of date by the time you read them. For all of those reasons and more I’m not sure much more commentary on that is helpful - although you’ll no doubt see plenty . To quote Ray Dalio: “what’s known is much less than what is not known”. As Joe Wiggins recently told us , investors would usually be better off ignoring macro commentary and doing less.
3 things I’ve been reading
Cynicism needs a modern update says Arthur Brooks in the Atlantic. “Now call my cynical but” , heard that much ? Maybe those saying it could do with going back to what the ancient philosophy actually was. Today it’s a theory of everything that gives its adherents a ready made pushback to almost any idea. It’s become closed, hardened against real intellectual discussion and shut off. Cynics already know the answer to everything. But the original wasn’t like that, it was much more a proactive open minded exploration of both sides of conventional wisdoms .
HBR think they’ve solved why it’s impossible to line up your calendar with more than two colleagues these days. We’re overloaded with meetings due to FOMO , autopilot recurring stuff, kidding ourselves that organising meetings in itself is actually work, being too poorly organised to get anything done without a meeting as a reminder or senior folk thinking only about themselves. But I think they missed one : meetings beget meetings. Yes , joke about it all you want but meetings-about-a-meeting are a thing (“pre-prep” anyone?), and it can easily go one level more.
Warren Buffet’s annual letter is out. Shivaram Rajgopal covers his anti-stakeholder capitalism views for Forbes. Buffet is clearly a great of investing, and I think most investors should understand a lot more about him than most do. His support of simplicity, sense of humility and his independent voice are special and so sorely lacking in most of our industry. BUT (you knew it was coming ); he has a blind spot on some big things. His facile anti-stakeholder examples (“I like candy, is candy bad ?”)- aimed at being folksy - are easily unpicked with a little bit of serious thought and disregard major issues such as the zero cost usually assigned to natural capital used and the significant known externalities often caused. Why does Warren buffet resist stakeholder capitalism
Something I’m reading & listening to
Rutger Bregman - human kind , a hopeful history. I ‘ve been making my way slowly through this excellent book since Gavin Lewis recommended it on our podcast ages ago. Rutger does a deep dive on the contrasting philosophies of Thomas Hobbes (humans act fundamentally in self interest , and need ruling over through civil institutions) and Rousseau (humans are social creatures , default to co-operation and trust: survival of the friendliest ) .
And before you think this is head in the clouds philosophy stuff , a lot of modern corporate structure comes from a Hobbesian view of the world (think: hierarchy , reporting lines , management , timesheets and billable hours ). Hobbes is often thought of as the more realist view of human natured but the book challenges that perception, re-framing a lot of what we think we know and asking whether maybe Rousseau’s ideas are closer to reality. Why does it matter? Because we often become the stories we tell. Our expectations of others become a self fulfilling prophecy.
Here’s a great podcast with the author, listen on web | apple
One thing to brighten your day - while we’re on a ski theme why not sit back and admire some Classic Candide Thovex as he has one of those days (2015).
Classic Candide Thovex
Bonus froth
90’s era M-People stands up so well (thanks for John Authers for putting me on to this a few weeks ago - it’s been on my playlist ever since).
anyone remember this advert? Possibly one of the greatest of the last 30 years .